Balrampur Chini and Bata India: Stock analysis update

Hello Readers!

Please find the follow-up on the analysis of Balrampur Chini and Bata India below. I will be sharing the rest with you soon along with some fresh stock analysis!

BALRAMPUR CHINI: Give it a break! 

Ticker: Balramchin
CMP: Rs. 101.40

After our initial analysis  of this stock we also had a follow up post on it . Let us move on to the current chart's analysis. 

ANALYSIS: Having made a high of 120 from the level of 71 where we spotted it, Balrampurchini has started taking a healthy correction. Support appears to be at the level of 86-92 which is the 50-61.8% correction from the peak. Once that level is achieved, we will look at charts again and take a call about the outlook. However, owing to the government’s move of producing ethanol directly from sugar, I believe the fundamentals continue to be very strong. 

BATA INDIA: Ready for a Sprint! 

Ticker: BATAINDIA
CMP: Rs. 1004

Original analysis: https://kavitatechnicalanalyst.blogspot.com/2018/10/bata-india-walking-on-slippery-ground.html

Analysis: In the previous post we mentioned a lack of confidence in Bata’s up-move around 950 levels. However, despite the seemingly weak technical outlooks in my opinion, Bata touched a high of 1030 odd levels and turned lower for a correction which took it to the sub 950 levels. Post the correction the price of Bata has started rising again and this rally is supported by strong technical too as shown above.

The probably target at this point is 1100 in the near term.

That is all for today. Please do share your feedback, appreciation and especially criticism. You can reach out to me directly via email kchamaria1993@gmail.com. Dont forget to follow my blog for regular updates directly in your inbox. 

After giving a 25% return in 3 weeks, what lies ahead for Balrampur Chini?

Hello readers!

Here’s another follow-up on the analysis of Balrampur Chini’s stock.

After our initial coverage of this stock on 24^th Aug(link here), it has already given a 25% run-up so far which I feels phenomenal.

But let us not forget that run up is just the beginning. The target lies much further ahead.

After two days of strong upside movement, the stock has dipped. Now, market participants will know it is nothing unnatural because profit taking is eminent after suck a sharp one sided move. But I want to emphasize here profit taking is all it is. The upside should continue going forward. The daily chart doesn’t give up much insight into the move as we can see below. It just shows RSI in the +60 zone which is a positive for the price movement. Another evidence of potential trend continuation comes from the volume on the last two days.

 

BALRAMPUR CHINI- daily chart captured on 18th sept, 2018. 

Let’s analyse the hourly chart to look deeper into the price movement.

The hourly chart below is showing good support present at the 35 hour EMA. I believe this acts a good entry point for those who missed the entry at the start of the trend. As Jesse Livermore has thought us we should always enter the bull trend at dips and this my friend is a good dip of 6% before the stock of Balrampur Chini paves its way to its ultimate target.

BALRAMPUR CHINI- Hourly chart captured on 18th Sept, 2018- Prices showing support at the 35EMA. 

That’s all for today. Please do read the original post here. I would love to hear from you. Please share your feedback via comments. You can also reach out to me directly via the contact me form. 

Thank you for taking out the time to read my articles.

You can find my analysis on two other stocks- FRETAIL and REC.  

As a disclaimer, this isn't a stock recommendation but a mere observation of a great phenomenon unfolding on the chart.

Another disclaimer: I am long on Balrampur Chini.

A warning: Anyone investing in Balrampur Chini based on this article is doing so at their own risk. Please be responsible.

QUICK UPDATE- Balrampur Chini and Future Retail

TICKER: BALRAMCHIN

Since the post on Balrampur Chini  on Aug, 23rd, the stock has been performing well. Things are looking up on the stock's chart. The price action recently gave a pull back after closing above the 100 day EMA for 3 consecutive days. The pull back found support at the 50 day EMA and soon enough bounced back piercing the 100 day EMA level of 77.05 and closing at 77.65. The stock has again open with a strong gap up today morning. 

All the conditions for calling the current trend an Uptrend on this chart are ticking off. 

• The stock is making higher-highs and higher-lows
• The important Moving averages have been breached.
• Volume is picking up on the up-days
• RSI has shown range shift. It has not breached the level of 40 corresponding to the recent price lows which indicates a strong momentum build-up in my opinion.

A snapshot of the chart as on day is presented below and you will be able to observe all of this on this chart. 

For a more detailed analysis of this stock, you can follow this link here to the original post. 

Balrampur Chini (Daily) captured on 6-9-18. Pull back and continuation

 TICKER: FRETAIL

Our next follow up is on Future Retail.

As we mentioned in our post on future retail on Aug 27th, another leg of upside appears to have begun. The breakaway gap has not been filled (yet). Here again, we can observe a pullback and a subsequent bounce on the dachart. The price turned lower after touching a high of 589.50 and took support at the cluster of 35, 50 and 100 day EMA after which it bounced back yesterday and gave a comfortable closing above the previous high. 

It is a great business and promoters are proven entrepreneurs. Not just that, the Indian retail space is a booming sector and Future Retail is one of the strongest players and hence one of the biggest benefitters. For a more details analysis I request you read the original post here.

Future Retail (Daily), captured on 6-9-18. A trend forming

That's all from my end! Please follow my blog and fill in your email ID to get my next post directly in your inbox. I would love to hear from you guys. Use the contact form to reach out to me!

As a disclaimer, this isn't a stock recommendation.

Another disclaimer: I am not long on Future Retail but I am invested in Balrampur Chini.

A warning: Anyone investing in either stocks based on this article will be doing so at their own risk. Please be responsible.

You can reach me at kchamaria1993@gmail.com for the analysis of other stocks (NSE, NYSE, LSE as long as there is a chart), commodities or currencies, I will try my best to respond.

Until next time, Adios! :D

Balrampur Chini: Bottom fishing (A study of range shift in RSI)

Hello friends!

I am back with a post after a long period of dormancy. I was never off practising TA but wasn't writing about it for various reasons (like laziness). But now it's time to dust our sleeves and get back to business.

I have spotted a compelling chart which really got me out of the dormant state and urged me to post about it!

That stock is Balrampur Chini!

Please refer to the chart below:

Balrampurchini Daily Chart captured on 24.08.2018

I am a huge fan of the momentum indicator - Relative Strength Index (RSI) and it was RSI's range shift phenomenon which has drawn my attention to the chart of Balrampur Chini.

In the above chart, you will notice arrows marking the beginning of major rallies. These arrows are actually highlighting the range shift in RSI - the phenomenon wherein RSI breaches the overbought zone of 60 to indicate higher momentum in the stock at relative price lows and at the end of corrections. This change in stock participant's momentum- where the buying momentum supersedes the selling momentum, is captured by RSI beautifully.

On the chart we can see that out of the past 4 instances, only one instance has been a failure where the range shift 's indication of a rally failed. Some might argue that the sample size of the observations is too less to conclude the range shift phenomenon to be any good in the above case. If you're one of those people then I advise you check out the older data of the stock and you will see the answer for yourself. There are more hits than misses.

The misses (indicated by the red arrow on the chart) have very distinct characteristic to themselves. Everytime the RSI has breached the level 60 soon after breaching the oversold level of 30 deeply, has lead to a failed rally. Basically, range shift works both ways. If you have RSI racing past 60 after a sluggish move where it held its nose above 30, then that gives a good indication of an impending rally, but the same move after a deep dive below the level of 30 just indicates shortness of breath and a bad (failed) rally.

To add to the above observation, the stock has also successfully made a higher high and a higher low which indicates uptrend. It is currently resting at the kissing point of the 35 and 50EMA. A crossover of the 50EMA above the 35EMA would make me more comfortable with this upmove.

If you look very closely, there has been alot of volume activity near the bottom of the chart just before the higher highs and higher lows came into the picture (literally). This for me is an indication of accumulation by big cats (the guys who knows the whats and whens before everyone else).

The stock also resisted the 100EMA (blue line) is the last rally so naturally moving above this level would be a confirmation of the rally and trend change.

I am expecting a 100% rally in this super cyclical stock post confirmation. Also, a breach of the previous low (59.70) is an exit for me.

As a disclaimer, this isn't a stock recommendation but a mere observation of a great phenomenon unfolding on the chart.
Another disclaimer: I am long on Balrampur Chini.
A warning: Anyone investing in Balrampur Chini based on this article is doing so at their own risk. Please be responsible.

The above observation is purely technical. Anyone with a fundamental insight on Balrampur Chini is invited to share the same, we can put up a collaborated article ( no pay for that :p).
I will myself try to come out with some fundamental insights (only if I get the time, no promises). You can reach me at kchamaria1993@gmail.com for the analysis of other stocks (NSE, NYSE, LSE as long as there is a chart), commodities or currencies, I will try my best to respond.

Until next time, Adios! :D

Footnote : The article was published before rally witnessed in Balrampur Chini today. It close 5% above yesterday's closing.