"MARKET KYA LAG RAHA HAI?"--- This is the most repeated question of the year 2015 following the 9116.95 high on 04th March 2015.
Below is an attempt to answer this question.
The market is clearly in a correction(for the better) . It is being said the Indian Economy will take over China in leading Global growth. I believe its true. But does that imply that the Indian market indices are invincible? Nope!
What is begun, has to end. The correction which is underway will see completion.
Below is a detailed Elliot Analysis of Nifty.
The Primary bull run that started from September 2013(~5200) ended on March 2015(~9100) registered a rise of nearly 4000 points. This rise encapsulated the proper 5 waves structure as laid out by Sir R.N.Elliot.
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| NIFTY SPOT Daily Chart , Dated- 28th August 2015. Elliot count on Nifty. |
I am pinning on the 7200 level because of the following reasons:
1.7200 level is the level of wave ii 3 [3] as highlighted by the ellipse on the chart below.
2. A ~50% Fibonacci of the entire primary wave gives us the level of 7150 .
3. There is always a Fibonacci relation between the lengths of Wave A and Wave C. Wave A was exactly 1180 points (9120-7940) . I'm expecting Wave C be 1460 points long. That is 1180 x 123.60%(a Fibonacci level) = 1458.48. So from the level of 8655(previous high), 8655-1460=7195.
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| NIFTY SPOT, Daily Chart, dated: 28/08/2015. Showing Elliot breakup. |
Such clustering of evidence around 7200 add weight-age to the level.
Below is a breakup of the corrective Wave A-B-C reflecting Nifty at its current level of resistance which is exactly 61.8% of the the Wave 1 so far into the primary Wave C.
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| NIFTY SPOT 4H Chart dated- 28/08/2015. Fibbonacci Levels and Elliot Wave analysis
Few levels taken for the analysis maybe off by 10-20pnts. But in my understanding they do not hamper the reliability of the Elliot and Fibonacci tools. It would be very interesting to note than ever since Nifty has hit the 9000 high, the RSI indicator has evidently undergone a range shift. Early the indicator would cross the 70 mark and stay shy of 40, but at 9000, the indicator did not pass above 60 and also broke the 40 mark to take support at 30 several times.
These elements help in judging the pulse of the market and are crucial for analysis.
Thank you reading.
Please feel free to comment on the analysis.
Anyone seeking detailed analysis on any security , preferably stock/currency/commodity, may email me their requirements at kchamaria1993@gmail.com. I'll try my best to help you with my analysis.
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Very nice description.
ReplyDeleteHow come your analysis is changing you said in july 8000 bottom ?
ReplyDeletehttp://kavitatechnicalanalyst.blogspot.in/2015/07/nifty-its-time-to-take-break.html
I am not complaining but not found a single EW expert who knows the wave correctly but they always do postmortem,
Thats the problem with EW theory. Its bit complex, in the sense that every individual has his or her own perception of the waves.
DeleteActually it's not a target given in that post. If you read it again you will see it's just a quoted remainder of what I'd written in my previous post.
DeleteAnd the thing about Elliot waves is that you can never be too sure about the markings, but tell an indicator on which you can 100 % rely. My markings of the 5 wave impulse are now different from what they were in February but that is okay as long as I'm getting my projections of the future somewhat correct .
DeleteAnd the thing about Elliot waves is that you can never be too sure about the markings, but tell an indicator on which you can 100 % rely. My markings of the 5 wave impulse are now different from what they were in February but that is okay as long as I'm getting my projections of the future somewhat correct .
DeleteAll indicators cannot give an accurate result and can give wrong signals as well. The best indicator to see would be moving averages. For the short term see the 5 day and 20 day moving average and for the long term see the 50 day and 200 day average of any stock or Nifty to see future trend and change your trading strategy the moment you see cross over intersections between 2 averages as mentioned above.
ReplyDeleteI prefer RSI over all other indicators, any day!
DeleteAny New Update On Nifty ... SL For Short Still last retrace level 8070... kindly share your view
ReplyDeleteI expect nifty to take resistance around 7880. above this the maximum i believe is 7940. after which i will look for alternate counts.
ReplyDeleteI m expecting the same....market will fall like 2008
ReplyDelete