Friday 30 November 2018

Nifty 50 Analysis: The Doji is here, and its bear-ly a good news

Hello Readers!

Please find the analysis of Nifty in the images below!

Nifty 50 formed a Doji pattern right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level today. Could this be the end of Wave B?

Note: Wave B catches people in the wrong direction. It performs the task of enticing the suckers to jump into the market. This is where bear or bull traps happen. As a general rule, B Waves tend to show lower volume.

Analysis: I believe Nifty 50 is showing the same traits of “eager participants jumping in at small rallies”. A failure to close above 10900 will ensure correction and beginning of Wave C. However, even if it does, the 61.8% golden ratio resistance level stands waiting at 11,100 which is a very strong resistance level and crossing that probably call for a new high in the index, which given the market climate seems far-fetched. 

Chart 1: Nifty (Daily) as on 30th Nov, 2018


There is eerie precision in today’s closing price which exactly coincides with the 50% retracement of Wave A

The above is a 30-mins chart. Today’s price movement shows uncertainty among the participants. Though the index opened strong, it continued to fell throughout the day and only closed slightly position thereby forming the doji we saw above.  The RSI had dipped below the level of 60 today for a while. As many may point out, it indeed is a bit pre-mature to conclusively point out that the rally is over for once but considering that oil prices are expected to bounce back owing to the cut in oil production, I think it is fair to look for evidences of weakness in the index too. 

Chart 2: Nifty (30-mins) as on 30th Nov, 2018
If Nifty 50 turns lower from this level, or even from 11100 which is the 61.8% retracement of the initial fall, more pain could follow in the unfolding of Wave C

Chart 3: Nifty (Daily) as on 30th Nov, 2018

That's all for the day! Stay tuned to my blog for more research on stocks, indices and commodities as and when I spot an opportunity worth writing about!

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Wednesday 28 November 2018

Balrampur Chini and Bata India: Stock analysis update

Hello Readers!

Please find the follow-up on the analysis of Balrampur Chini and Bata India below. I will be sharing the rest with you soon along with some fresh stock analysis!

BALRAMPUR CHINI: Give it a break! 

Ticker: Balramchin
CMP: Rs. 101.40

After our initial analysis  of this stock we also had a follow up post on it . Let us move on to the current chart's analysis. 

ANALYSIS: Having made a high of 120 from the level of 71 where we spotted it, Balrampurchini has started taking a healthy correction. Support appears to be at the level of 86-92 which is the 50-61.8% correction from the peak. Once that level is achieved, we will look at charts again and take a call about the outlook. However, owing to the government’s move of producing ethanol directly from sugar, I believe the fundamentals continue to be very strong. 



BATA INDIA: Ready for a Sprint! 

Ticker: BATAINDIA
CMP: Rs. 1004

Original analysis: https://kavitatechnicalanalyst.blogspot.com/2018/10/bata-india-walking-on-slippery-ground.html



Analysis: In the previous post we mentioned a lack of confidence in Bata’s up-move around 950 levels. However, despite the seemingly weak technical outlooks in my opinion, Bata touched a high of 1030 odd levels and turned lower for a correction which took it to the sub 950 levels. Post the correction the price of Bata has started rising again and this rally is supported by strong technical too as shown above.
The probably target at this point is 1100 in the near term.



That is all for today. Please do share your feedback, appreciation and especially criticism. You can reach out to me directly via email kchamaria1993@gmail.com. Dont forget to follow my blog for regular updates directly in your inbox.