BATA INDIA (Update): Not convinced with the bullish story

Hello Readers,

In the previous post, I spoke about a lucrative short bet on Bata. The reason was simple, weak evidences on the chart.

Today I reanalysed the stock to try and come up with a revised analysis as the resistance has been breached and the stock is trending upwards. However, upon a close look, the story which is being told by the consortium of price, volume and RSI is not in agreement with what a strong bullish stock should look like. The evidences suggest that the ongoing rally is being supported by a few big players who are influencing the price. The retail participants are majorly selling the stock and we know that without retail participation in buying, no stock can continue its rally.

Please refer to the images below for a detailed analysis. I intend to look into the quarterly data soon to try and pick up on whatever is encouraging this 'spike' buying.

Adios, for now!

BATA INDIA- Walking on slippery ground!

Stock Name: Bata India

Ticker name: BATAINDIA

Current market price: Rs. 910

Outlook: Bearish

Target downside levels: 848, 802

Resistance: 927

Hello Readers!

The hourly chart of Bata India is giving weak signals!

The above picture is pretty much self explanatory. There are 3 specific evidences which indicate that Bata India might take a dip in the upcoming trading sessions. Let's look at them technically.

1) The dark blue line is the 200 EMA on the hourly chart of Bata. It has acted as the resistance zone on several instances as highlighted on the chart with blue circles. In technical analysis, moving averages tend to act as very important support/resistance zones across time frames and are used by trades as entry levels.

2) Another factor supporting our bearish view on Bata India is the fact that the trendline had been breached in the previous correction. This indicates underlying weakness even if the price bounced up again. Broken trendlines should be taken very seriously as all major corrections are first signalled with trendline breaches.

3) RSI - our momentum indicator, has reached the oversold zone of 60 and turned lower without crossing to the 60 to 80 zone which is the bullish zone for up trending stocks. It has been observed that a stock which is in the bear trend, reached an RSI level of almostly 60 in pull backs and upside corrections. Many traders use the RSI level of 60 to enter into fresh shorts in a stock which is displaying other signs of weakness and forming lower lows in price on charts of a higher time frame.

This is all I have on the technical outlook of Bata India's chart. If you have additional insights or even opposing views, please feel free to reach out and we can discuss! Healthy learning!

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Nifty 50 - Ready for an upswing!

Hello Readers!

Nifty update:

Nifty has corrected steeply over the past weeks. In the last Nifty update, the macro reasons behind the steep fall in Nifty were stated. In the following days I also posted about the bearish engulfing pattern which had emerged on Nifty's Daily chart and indicated further weakness with an infograph on my facebook page.

Nifty went on to breach the 10200 low exactly as per the analysis stated and closed near 10150 level today. However, the bear trend has been going on for a while now and few evidence on the charts plus an inter-market factor indicates that bears might want to take a step back (temporarily only) for now and let the falling Nifty take a break from all the chaos.

Evidences indication pullback on Nifty's chart:

1. Appearance of the Spinning Top: The candle stick pattern formed on the daily chart of Nifty is a reversal pattern. The spinning top  is a pattern which indicates indecision and represents struggle between the opposing forces (bulls and bears) which determine the trading prices. 

The image below highlights the spinning top and explains the significance of the pattern. The occurrence of such indecisive pattern close to importance support levels is often an indication of bear trend reversal, even if its temporarily.

2. Trendline support: Trendlines offer strong support/resistance zones. Nifty has reached one such strong support level which I believe may help the index take a breather before resuming the corrective movement against the primary trend. The resistance by virtue of another trendline lies at the level of around 11100. 

3. RSI Positive Divergence:  RSI is my favorite indicator. It is a leading indicator and has on several instances given superb signals of trend reversals. Nifty's daily chart has shown one such positive divergence. A positive divergence occurs when the indicator does not forge a new low as compared to the price. This divergence is a hint towards underlying strength. Again, the occurence of the positive divergence near a trendline and close to the oversold zone increases its potency. 

The above three factors are purely technical related. An inter-market factor which also indicates that a reversal in Nifty is due is the weakness in Crude oil price. It has fallen over 5% on 23rd Oct that is today. Crude oil price and stock market are inversely related. Rising crude oil price was a major factor behind the falling stock market price over the past few months. The weakness therefore is expected to provide some strength to the index. 

The above 4 factors are in my opinion sufficient to keep the index from sinking further in the immediate future. The rest will unfold with time, till then, adios!

Link Investments to Goals, not to Market Situations

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The initial period of a crisis always holds conflicting information, and is not ideal for investing

UMA SHASHIKANT

When the stock markets are volatile, you always hear conflicting views. Optimists will prod you to be a smart investor and buy when there is blood on the Street. Pessimists will announce the end of the world and ask you to take what is on the table and flee. Investing is that kind of activity. Much as we love to control how our money will behave, there will be unexpected twists and turns. It is easier to discuss risk and how it is an important part of investing, when the going is good. When simple investors see the price of their holdings fall each day, it is tough to make decisions. Here are some pointers to think about.

First, do not be taken in by the temptation to time the markets. Many investors are convinced that if they did not get the timing right, they would make no money. People who say they should have booked profits have actually allocated too much to equity as an asset class, or to a specific product. Think about it. What would you do with the profits that you book? If you are reinvesting, you are adjusting the amount you invested in a stock or product, that is revision. If you are keeping the money in the bank, you are underweighting stocks and overweighting cash, that is rebalancing. Always consider your choices strategically(long term perspective) and not tactically (Short term adjustments to the long term plans in view of opportunity- not suitable for short term investors). Align your decisions to your goals, not the markets.

Second, do not try to catch a falling knife. Professional investors have the benefit of systems that track their positions and profits. They have to implement tactics that can help them compete in a tough market. Simple investors, saving for life’s goals, should not take risks with falling markets. See a falling market for what it is—a steep correction in prices. Do not see a falling market as an opportunity.

Third, act with deliberation. It is easy to be carried away by the panic selling seen in trading counters. Traders take short-term positions and keep a sharp eye on their capital. They pay margins and incur interest costs on open positions. As prices fall, it is tougher to find money for margin while losing on an open position. That is why they sell quickly and panic in a market crash. Don’t imagine yourself in a position that is not your reality. Your funds are yours and not borrowed.

Fourth, a falling tide takes all. After the IL&FS fiasco, non-banking stocks fell due to the fear of downgrades and defaults across the board. Stocks of top lenders with great credentials also fell. Some correct more, some less, but there is all-round correction. This means that the market is reworking the valuation of stocks, based on new information. It is not an immediate buying opportunity, though many will be tempted to see good stocks selling at lower prices. A correction means the definition of what is good and what is no longer good is being altered. A bad balance sheet cannot be corrected overnight. Do not bet too early on what is resilient. Do not buy or sell in haste.

Fifth, watch carefully for clues. When the noise settles down, and when there is an actual concrete plan of action about the defaulting large business, that is when real recovery will begin. All the ups and downs till then will be driven by rumours, speculation and panic. It is not necessary for you as a long-term investor to act preemptively and try to jump ahead and go in ‘before the information is in the price.’ To build a quality portfolio, there is always time, and greater the deliberation, better the output.

Sixth, evaluate what you have carefully. While you are trying to look at the market and identify great opportunities for buying, what you are already holding may be telling you a story. If your stocks are falling steeply and failing to recover even with good news, you may have to book your losses. And if you bought some sector fund, or some specialty fund, you will have to jettison them. In a risky market, quality matters above all else.

—The writer is Chairperson, Centre for Investment Education and Learning

Disclaimer: This article was not written by me. It has been taken from economic times and the author is UMA SHASHIKANT. The advice in this article is very practical and resonates with the motive of my content in general, which is mostly long term analysis. I take no credit for the content. I came across this post on ET and thought of sharing it with me readers due to the educational nature of the article.

The stock market dilemma- What is happening with Nifty 50?

Hello Readers!

It has been a while since the previous post on the index  and a lot has changed since then. Nifty has taken a deep dive and is just coming up for a breath of fresh air.

Let's first answer why Nifty corrected so much?

Is it because of Sri Narendra Modi, our Prime Minister?
Is it because of weak economic policies?
OR is it because of some twisted reason related to Pakistan?

The answer is none of the above!

The index is correcting simply because of global fears and impact of trade war which has interfered with the balance in global economy and its impact is visible via movement in 3 primary assets: Gold, Currency and Oil.

Intermarket analysis

The picture is mostly self explanatory.

Nifty is rallying currently because oil dropped nearly 3% yesterday, but that does not mean everything is back to normal already.

I am not analysing Nifty's moves in this post, that is for another post but for now I would like to emphasize that the correction is not over because the main ingredients (Gold, Rupee and Crude Oil) that determine the direction for Nifty, are still sour.

Nifty has not bottomed, It is only the calm before the storm continues

The volatility is evident from the price action. There is fear and anxiety and retail participants are losing self control in this market.

Correction will continue, even if Nifty takes some rest. And this rest will probably not exceed over 11155. It is best for the retailers to sit on their pile of money and wait the storm out rather than dumping it in the troubled ocean that Nifty is right now.

That's all. Stay tuned to my blog for a detailed analysis of the Elliott Wave counts on the index.

I would really appreciate comments in the section below. Do share the link to this blog with your friends, other analysts and on social media.

Adios!

Fun Fact: I have added links which can take you to interesting articles. If you're a hungry reader, then you will surely have fun!

Look at Britannia's shares! Your evening snack is now more lucrative!

Hello Readers!

Today we will discuss your evening tea ka sathi- Britannia!

Ticker:           BRITANNIA

CMP-             Rs. 5625

Support 1-      Rs. 5580, Support 2-       Rs.5300

Resistance 1- Rs. 5910, Resistance 2-   Rs.6175

Refer to the chart below. We can see that Britannia has trended upwards pretty consistently, and the corrections, which might have seemed scary in the past, seem trivial in hind-sight. 

It is one of those rare buy & hold stocks that grandparents bought and forgot and made their future generations very wealthy!

However, despite the amazing track record, even a stock as mind blowing as Britannia has not been spared the market correction that has stunned the Indian Capital Market due to a plethora of reasons. 

Britannia is currently 20% off from its highest price of Rs. 6934 and that is a lot of correction for a quality stock like Britannia which has grown at a 10 yr CAGR of 35%!

Britannia- Daily chart: Price has corrected nearly 20% from the top

So what's next?

I looked at the hourly chart and this is what I found :

Britannia Hourly chart: Positive divergence on RSI is a positive indication on a small time frame

The hourly chart of Britannia is showing a mild positive divergence between the RSI and price. This indicates that the momentum of correction is going to slow down. It may resort of consolidation before it resumes the uptrend. I am not betting on a very deep correction as the daily chart continues to remain quite healthy and the correction started off without a major negative divergence like in the case of Maruti's chart, which is also a star performer like Britannia but is in the deep red zone and has breached its 52-week low and its correction started of with a sever RSI negative divergence. 

I will look at the resistance level of 6175 because it presents the previous high, breaching which would be a continuation of the uptrend for me. But before that happens, I believe the stock will consolidate like it has done in the past following major corrections like this one. 

Britannia Daily, Covering a long range of price activity and RSI range Shift

The above chart shows the range shift activity of RSI, which has almost always given an early indication of the price behaviour. RSI has shifted it's range to correspond with the trend of price. Like in the uptrend, it maintained a range of 40-80 whereas in a downtrend/consolidation phase, it maintained a range of 20-60. 

Such a tell tale behaviour of RSI is astounding even though it happens across stocks and indices, it still leaves me in awe of this wonderful indicator. 

This phenomenon has been highlighted better in the chart below, wherein the uptrends in price have been shaded in green and the downtrend/consolidations have been shaded in red. We can clearly make out how the RSI accurately reflects the subdued momentum in price movements during cool periods and flares up when it starts trending again. RSI is rightly called a leading indicator.

Britannia Daily- RSI range shift accurately shows the price momentum 

As we see in the right most corner of the above chart, the RSI has recently shifted to the bear zone and this further strengthens my analysis that Britannia will continue to consolidate at this point. However, a move accompanied with heavy volumes below the support zone of 5380-5300 will be indication of continued correction, though I do not expect it to happen, but we have to keep an open mind and be ready for the unexpected.

If you would like to discuss any aspect of this analysis of Britannia, please feel free to reach out to me at kchamaria1993@gmail.com.

This is all for today! Do share this analysis with other stock market enthusiasts like you and me!

Adios!