Slivering the SILVER!

Hello Readers!

Today we discuss a commodity for the first time!

In the daily chart of SILVER given below, you may note the Range Shift in RSI corresponding to the change in price trends. During the Uptrend, RSI has maintained a Range of 35-70 whereas in the downtrend, the range has shifted to 20-50.

Like the range shift loyalty, amazing reliability has come from the Bollinger Bands. The upper band has shown commendable resistance every time the RSI shifted to the Bullish Range. Given that, in the current range shift also, the upper band level of 36300 is expected to be a good resistance. However any move below the 34200 level and failure of RSI to move above 50 would mean a dismiss of this analysis.

SILVER , Period: DAILY, Last updated: 4th Sept, 2015. 

On the Weekly chart of SILVER given below, we study the Bollinger Bands. 

Every constriction on the bands in the SILVER WEEKLY chart has resulted in a sharp move. Presently, there is evident constriction between the bands and keeping in view the weekly RSI's strong support at the 40 level, we can conclude SILVER is expected to move up from here with a different and riskier target of 40000, i.e. till the upper bollinger band. 

SILVER, Period: WEEKLY, Last updated: 4th sept, 2015.

UPDATE (10th Sept, 2015, 10:50 AM)

silver ready to bounce again, after touching a high of 35988, it has taken support at ~35260, the sl changed to 35200. anyone who would like to make up for the missed opportunity, now is a good time.

SILVER , Period: 30 mins, 10th Sept, 2015, 10:50 AM

Thank you for reading!

Please feel free to comment on the analysis.

Anyone seeking detailed analysis on any security, preferably stock/currency/commodity, may email me at kchamaria1993@gmail.com. I'll try my best to help you.

NIFTY headed for deeper water!

"MARKET KYA LAG RAHA HAI?"--- This is the most repeated question of the year 2015 following the 9116.95 high on 04th March 2015. 

Below is an attempt to answer this question.

The market is clearly in a correction(for the better) . It is being said the Indian Economy will take over China in leading Global growth. I believe its true. But does that imply that the Indian market indices are invincible? Nope!

What is begun, has to end. The correction which is underway will see completion.

Below is a detailed Elliot Analysis of Nifty.

The Primary bull run that started from September 2013(~5200) ended on March 2015(~9100) registered a rise of nearly 4000 points. This rise encapsulated the proper 5 waves structure as laid out by Sir R.N.Elliot. 

NIFTY SPOT Daily Chart , Dated- 28th August 2015. Elliot count on Nifty.

I am pinning on the 7200 level because of the following reasons:

      1.7200 level is the level of wave ii 3 [3] as highlighted by the ellipse on the chart below.

      2. A ~50% Fibonacci of the entire primary wave gives us the level of 7150 .

      3. There is always a Fibonacci relation between the lengths of Wave A and Wave C. Wave A was exactly 1180 points (9120-7940) . I'm expecting Wave C be 1460 points long. That is 1180 x 123.60%(a Fibonacci level) = 1458.48. So from the level of 8655(previous high), 8655-1460=7195.

NIFTY SPOT, Daily Chart, dated: 28/08/2015. Showing Elliot breakup. 

   

Such clustering of evidence around 7200 add weight-age to the level. 

Below is a breakup of the corrective Wave A-B-C reflecting Nifty at its current level of resistance which is exactly 61.8% of the the Wave 1 so far into the primary Wave C.  

NIFTY SPOT 4H Chart dated- 28/08/2015. Fibbonacci Levels and Elliot Wave analysis

Few levels taken for the analysis maybe off by 10-20pnts. But in my understanding they do not hamper the reliability of the Elliot and Fibonacci tools. It would be very interesting to note than ever since Nifty has hit the 9000 high, the RSI indicator has evidently undergone a range shift. Early the indicator would cross the 70 mark and stay shy of 40, but at 9000, the indicator did not pass above 60 and also broke the 40 mark to take support at 30 several times. 

These elements help in judging the pulse of the market and are crucial for analysis.

Thank you reading. 

Please feel free to comment on the analysis.

Anyone seeking detailed analysis on any security , preferably stock/currency/commodity, may email me their requirements at kchamaria1993@gmail.com. I'll try my best to help you with my analysis.

Something on the Currencies: USDINR, USDEUR, EURINR

Hello Readers!

Here's a post on a few currencies of the world as we know them. The dollar, the Euro and of course the Rupee.

The EURINR chart is range bound. having formed the triple top formation on the chart, with resistance at 73, the EURINR has begun to dip again. While looking at the bigger picture and a parallel analysis of the USDINR and USDEUR we see that Rupee seems to be getting stronger against Dollar, while Euro is giving signal of getting weaker against Dollar in the coming days.

Hence we can assum with evidence that Rupee will strengthen against the Euro.

If this happens then there will not be a breakout on the eurinr chart beyond the range of 73 , as also indicated by the momentum indicator, RSI, which has reached the zone of 70 and failed to breached it, which is a very bearish sign.

so we have a three fold hold on these currency pairs name usdeur, eurinr and usdinr.

USDINR- Bearish

EURINR- Bearish

USDEUR-Bearish.  

Add caption

The individual Chart analysis is as follows.

EURINR

Currently undergoing a choppy movement between the range of 73.0 and 68.50, there is evidence on the charts to believe that the INR will strengthen against the EUR and pave way for the support zone of 68.50. whether it completes the journey to tthe support level or not is a matter of time, but individual analysis tells us that there will not be a breakout above the zone of 73.0 atleast in this movement. 

Moreover the RSI has given a top of 69.0474, just shy of 70, a bad signal. 

EURINR daily chart last updated 18-8-2015

 USDEUR

What we see in the USDEUR chart is called the measuring move, wherein a sharp movement in one directed is interjected by a correction in the opoosite direction somewhere in the middle of the entire move. So here, the red downfall from 0.920 to 0.892 was just half the movement and soon we may witness a fall of the same magnitude - heading for the support blue line around 0.880.

USDEUR daily chart , last updated 18-8-2015

 USDINR

The last candle on the chart is called a doji. Due to owning the EOD verison, I am unable to present you with the updated chart here which would contains today's movement also, which has given a lower closing than the last candle in this chart which is called a dragonfly DOJI, an indicator of indecision and probable weakness when appearing at tops.  This indicates that the Rupee has good probability of owning up strength against the Dollar. 

Again RSI in the chart is pretty overbought, not as insistent as in the USDEUR chart, but still, it does indicate chances of a correction here. 

USDINR daily chart, last updated 18-8-2015

Please feel free to comment on the analysis.

Anyone seeking detailed analysis on any security , preferably stock/currency/commodity, may email me their requirements at kchamaria1993@gmail.com. I'll try my best to help you with my analysis.

Technical lead on ACC

For the first time, I've decided I'll share my analysis on a stock. Please note: these are my observations, you are welcome to go along with it , but on your own discretion, I undertake no liability.

ACC

CMP- 1387.40, target price- 1530, stoploss- 1355. 

Below is the daily chart ACC cement which seems like it could rise from the Friday's closing of 1387.40 to a good 1530 in the coming days.

The evidences behind such observations are:

1. RSI has bounced from 30 and is headed higher

2. Good volumes on the previous day 

3. RSI stochastic has recently crossed over the 30 zone and is heading higher, which is a thumps up.

stock: ACC. period: DAILY. DATE: 31ST JULY 2015. Indicating a good upmove from 1387 to 1530.

Keeping it precise. Follow up for more stocks and Nifty view for the coming week.

NIFTY: Its time to take a break!

Hello again!

I'm back to my Blog after ages. Lets recap the events which have happend in the 5 months of unintentional gap since my last blog post on 28th Jan, 15.

In my first post written on MONDAY, 15 DECEMBER 2014, "ELLIOT WAVE COUNT FOR NIFTY SPOT!", 
 I'd written, "

 According to my analysis, Nifty has finished its major 5 wave up-move and is set to finish the 3 wave A-B-C correction. As per the Elliot rules, the correction normally ends at the end of second inter-wave of the wave 5 which lies at 8000.
Hence I am holding 8000 as the target for this correction. Now this should be interfered by a minor bounce-back  to justify the A-B-C format of the corrective wave.

"

...and we've witnessed that happening. Nifty has scaled the level of 8000, registering a low of 7940.30 and bounced back with fair strength. 

The long term picture of the Indian Market is attractive. Its a good time to invest in stocks. But what we'll discuss now is the present and near future of Nifty. 

Please refer to the charts below. Nifty spot, Daily, Screenshot taken on 17th July, '15. The red line marks an important resistance zone which has significant past importance. 

label 1 shows that 8630 has been a turning point in the past .

label 2 shows the occurrence of a gap at the level 8620 again.

label 3 shows that 8630 was a support during the slip from the high of 9000 , thus establishing its importance.

Given this , the presence of 8630 should pose as a resistance to the current rise in Nifty. 

The next thing to note are the blue lines which map the current path of Nifty and shows that Nifty has approached the upper trendline and suggests that it should now reverse to visit the lower trendline.

The labels at the indicator RSI merely show the shift in ranges due to change in the market trend. Please note, when nifty was in a downtrend, RSI refused to move above the level of 60(marked red line) , whereas in the current trend,we've witnessed a positive divergence between nifty and RSI and also RSI piercing the level of 60 with stability. 

The base trend remains up but we have evidences to believe a correction coming with a support at 8550.

NIFTY SPOT : DAILY: 17th JULY 2015.

The chart given below shows a channelled movement in Nifty. It is different from the one in the above chart because the lines drawn here are parallel, and in my opinion more reliable. The first support lies at 8550, near the lower high formed on 7th july and the next sup at 8460.  In case there is sharp move on the downside there might be deeper corrections but the strong RSI does not indicate that happening. The correction can be in a form of consolidation as well, but the level of 8550 should be achieved in the process.

NIFTY SPOT : 2 HOURS: 17th JULY, 2015

Stay tuned for some stock analysis in the upcoming posts.

Thanks for reading!

EVERY GOOD THING COMES TO AN END, ONLY TO COME BACK AGAIN.

How wonderful was it to see Nifty almost scale the legendary 9000 mark today! Nifty tumbled after marking a high of 8985.05 at 12:34 PM.

But of-course, public anticipations are more often met with disappointments than with fulfillment owning to the laws of crowd psychology which govern the game of the stock exchanges.

Are we expecting Nifty to bounce back and keep climbing, or is it time for Nifty to correct the straight 9 working days one-sided climb from a close of 8277 on 14th Jan to the current lifetime high of 8985.05, a whooping 708 points in 9 days!

Here are some charts with explanations as to why we should expect a correction now , and not be disheartened about it, because the best is yet to come.

There are two things which we need to take note of in the following chart,

Firstly, Nifty has touched the upper resistance trendline, which, can either lead us to a correction as in the instances marked A and B, or consolidate temporarily and then correct , as in the case C.

Secondly, the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI), at the bottom of the chart marked E, shows the index(Nifty) highly overbought , which is actually a good thing as it indicates the possibility of a short-term correction, but tells the story of long term bullishness and high expectation backed by 'strength'.
 

DAILY NIFTY SPOT CHART SHOWING TRENDLINES WITH CORRESPONDING SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCES

Moving on to the intraday chart(s) of Nifty Spot with a time frame of 30 mins, we have two additional evidences which suggest that Nifty may have run its course for the time being.

First: Equality.

Practitioners of Technical Analysis must be aware of the term' Equality' used in the Elliot Theory. 'Equality' is a guideline which tells us that two impulse waves may grow out to be of the same length. 

In the below chart we look at the solid yellow lines marked LINE 1 and LINE 2. The picture approximates the move from the bottom of the respective lines to the top to 900 points where as it is exactly 899 in case of LINE 1 and 919.6 in  case of LINE 2. Having achieved Equality with the previous impulse wave, Nifty appears to have taken resistance at the completion of the target set forth by the previous impulse. 

Second: Fibonacci Ratio.

Lets zoom in at the above chart and focus only on LINE 2.

We can see that Line 2 is separated into two parts. The first part of the impulse is 288 points, followed by a mild correction, from where nifty bounced a magnificent 748 points to today's high.
The appearance of the white circle indicates the gap which appeared at the commencement of the second part of the impulse LINE 2, emphasizing strength in the upmove .

If we look at the relation between the numbers 288 and 748, we learn that 748 is almost 2.618 times 288 , short by only 6 points as 288 X 2.618 = 754~

Ratios like 2.618, 1.618, 0.618 are very important Fibonacci relations which have scientifically been proven to be the Design behind the Universe and its reflection in the stock market which it nothing but the collective manifestation of the human conscience in relation to the financial world, should not be a surprise to those who know about the wonders of the Golden Ratio.

Thus, i conclude here, by not indicating bearishness in Nifty, but by simply suggesting that  its time for Nifty to take a breather and correct its course so that it may commence the rise with renewed vigor.

Thanks for Reading! I welcome your comment and criticism!

  

THE CURRENT MARKET PICTURE AND WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT !

NIFTY has everyone gripping their seats in anticipation of its next direction.

In the past few months we have seen this darling index swing up and down, pleasing and disappointing the participants of the market. It spent the first half of October falling to 7720 from a good 8200, followed by a rise which lasted to the very end to November scaling the levels of 8600, but since December, the index has been correcting those gains and has constantly failed at maintaining its stance above the 8300 mark of resistance. It was only on the 2^nd of Jan 2015, that nifty has managed to foot down 8300.

In the previous blog post I gave my interpretation of the Elliot wave counts for NIFTY spot chart, establishing a target of 8000 for the index in the first down leg (ended on 17^th dec), it was mentioned that a bounce back maybe expected when the index reaches 8000. As we know, NIFTY made a low of 7961 on 17th December, which is a little beyond the target, and has been rising ever since.

This naturally raises the question whether the correction is over for real, or are we being dubbed by an intermediary bounce in a correction which is meant to dig deeper. We do not have fool -proof answers to that, but some evidences from Technical Analysis can help us in drawing some conclusions.

1. The 4th tenet of Dow Theory- Charles Dow, the Father of Technical Analysis, has laid down 6 basic tenets of Dow Theory. In the fourth tenet, he has specifically spoken about the conformity in two market indices active in a particular exchange and acted upon widely by the market participants. The two indices of interest here are NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.

    Active market participants will know by experience that the NIFTY and the BANKNIFTY  follow the same direction on a daily and intraday basis. When one falls, the other is bound to follow sooner or later and vice versa. So naturally, it is important that they conform to each other in making ‘new’ tops and bottoms. If we look at the current market scenario, we will see that this is not happening , as BANKNIFTY is riding above 19000 which is the highest it has ever traded, and NIFTY is hovering around 8350-8400 which is nearly 200 points off the top of 8600.

     

         This may be considered as a sign of embedded weakness in the current market rally.

2. Negative divergence in BANKNIFTY and RSI- RSI stands for Relative Strength Index, a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the following formula:

           RSI = 100 - 100/ (1 + RS*)

       

         *Where RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes.

     

         According to Wilder (the founder of this indicator), divergences signal a potential reversal point because directional momentum does not confirm price. A bearish divergence forms when the security records a ‘higher high’ and RSI forms a ‘lower high’. RSI does not confirm the new high and this shows weakening momentum. This is what is shown in the chart of BANKNIFTY below:

LINE CHART SHOWING NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN RSI AND BANKNIFTY 

3.  ELLIOT WAVE COUNTING, CONTINUATION INTO THE CORRECTIVE WAVE (B)- In the above two points there is stress upon the fact that there may come a fall in the market anytime soon. But when?

          According to the Elliot Wave count, we are in the corrective mode, which is marked as  WAVES (A)-(B)-(C). More specifically we are currently in the WAVE (B) which is itself formed of 3 minor waves marked a-b-c (market has a tendency to move in repetitive structures which appear in different time scales, its called FRACTALS). As per the rules, Wave-a and Wave- c can often be expected to be equal, so we can expect that the Wave- c will equal to Wave-a (400 points) and end at approx 8550 (= 8150+400).

CHART SHOWING ELLIOT WAVE COUNT AND TARGET FOR NIFTY

4.  TRENDLINE- We see in the above chart the extended trendline joining the low points of the previous rally happensto almost coincide with the predicted end of WAVE (B), which happens to be at 8550,  hence adding to the weight of evidences in proving 8550to be a major resistance zone.  

Hence, I conclude , the above evidences give a hint that 8550 is a major resistance level, which may push the market into it next down leg called WAVE C, the expected targets of which will be posted in the next blog. It is advised that high level of caution be maintained if anyone has current positions in the market, and those who are eager to enter the market and earn for themselves with a long term perspective, should wait till market has shed the points it is due to shed.